Ecom Logistics Predictions for 2025

It’s my job to predict what’s going to happen in global eCommerce logistics so that companies can be ready and prepared for those changes. Here’s what tops my list for 2025:

1. TikTok US is divested

After going through hell and back due to uncertainty—maybe brief periods of removal from the Android and iOS stores, and perhaps even some bans—TikTok US is eventually divested and acquired by a US-based public tech company. There are many more qualified people to guess who that buyer will be, but my simplified guess is that it will not be Meta or Google due to their existing market share in social media, which doesn’t leave too many other options. Microsoft comes to mind due to its previous public interest in acquiring TikTok, its lack of any successful social media business, and its size and scale, which make it capable of owning and operating multiple unrelated large businesses.

2. Section 321 $800 De Minimis gets the axe

With nearly unanimous support across the political spectrum, Section 321’s $800 duty-free de minimis, which was constantly in the news and often equated with Shein and Temu, is ultimately closed off and overhauled. It’s replaced with a system similar to the EU iOSS or Australia’s model, requiring full registration and payment on every parcel entering the US.

3. Temu kills a logistics company

Known within the industry for its lengthy payment terms, payment delays, and large penalties on logistics providers, Temu’s aggressive policies are going to result in at least one major household parcel delivery company getting burned. This will force that company to seek emergency funding or go bankrupt—sparking further political scrutiny on whether Temu is helping or harming domestic businesses.

4. Gig delivery in vogue

With Amazon Shipping starting to claim a large market share in last-mile parcel delivery, and startups like UniUni raising more and more funding, the media is going to fixate on gig delivery as a major talking point. Incumbent parcel carriers will begin to copy this model or quietly implement elements of it into their own business strategies.

5. GLS is spun out of IDS

IDS has been acquired, including Royal Mail and GLS. Whether through an IPO or a trade sale, GLS is extremely valuable and could be spun out to unlock a huge premium. It just makes sense.